[FoRK] Your prediction, please

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Mon Jun 24 09:03:08 PDT 2013


On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 03:15:02PM -0500, Russell Turpin wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 3:06 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > Sold where? Operating in public roads, fully insured?
> 
> Yes.

I take Yes means California and Arizona, then.

As a WAG, 2040. Error range plus minus a decade, so
that doesn't mean much in practice.
 
> > In any case several decades.
> 
> Why so long?

There is a lot of inertia, and the insurance issue is highly
problematic. You need a lot of crunch in a small, low-power
package. We know Moore has saturated, and looks like we hit
troubled waters economically rather soon globally, so such 
things will be very low priority for a while, possibly a
long while.

(If we're very unlucky, the answer is never).




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