[FoRK] Your prediction, please

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Mon Jun 24 09:54:07 PDT 2013


On 6/24/13 9:03 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 03:15:02PM -0500, Russell Turpin wrote:
>> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 3:06 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>>> Sold where? Operating in public roads, fully insured?
>> Yes.
> I take Yes means California and Arizona, then.
>
> As a WAG, 2040. Error range plus minus a decade, so
> that doesn't mean much in practice.

That's very pessimistic.  We went from slide rules and the Model T to the Moon and Internet in similar time.  And things were 
evolving slowly back then.

>   
>>> In any case several decades.
>> Why so long?
> There is a lot of inertia, and the insurance issue is highly
> problematic. You need a lot of crunch in a small, low-power
> package. We know Moore has saturated, and looks like we hit
> troubled waters economically rather soon globally, so such
> things will be very low priority for a while, possibly a
> long while.
>
> (If we're very unlucky, the answer is never).
>
Perhaps you need to see Google Self-Driving Cars on the road more often.  They are fairly common here, driving hundreds of 
thousands of miles.  Just about every time I take I-280 I pass one.  I know where they park, a couple miles from home.

I suspect that snow will be an issue for a while, but otherwise they seem fairly solid.  City driving and pedestrians were 
covered well in the last DARPA challenge.  Of course a lot of work and testing needs to be done, but it is possible to get 
started.  Even if insurance companies aren't on board, Google could self-insure the first 100 or 1000 cars.

sdw



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