[FoRK] Your prediction, please
sdw at lig.net
Mon Jun 24 09:54:07 PDT 2013
On 6/24/13 9:03 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 03:15:02PM -0500, Russell Turpin wrote:
>> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 3:06 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>>> Sold where? Operating in public roads, fully insured?
> I take Yes means California and Arizona, then.
> As a WAG, 2040. Error range plus minus a decade, so
> that doesn't mean much in practice.
That's very pessimistic. We went from slide rules and the Model T to the Moon and Internet in similar time. And things were
evolving slowly back then.
>>> In any case several decades.
>> Why so long?
> There is a lot of inertia, and the insurance issue is highly
> problematic. You need a lot of crunch in a small, low-power
> package. We know Moore has saturated, and looks like we hit
> troubled waters economically rather soon globally, so such
> things will be very low priority for a while, possibly a
> long while.
> (If we're very unlucky, the answer is never).
Perhaps you need to see Google Self-Driving Cars on the road more often. They are fairly common here, driving hundreds of
thousands of miles. Just about every time I take I-280 I pass one. I know where they park, a couple miles from home.
I suspect that snow will be an issue for a while, but otherwise they seem fairly solid. City driving and pedestrians were
covered well in the last DARPA challenge. Of course a lot of work and testing needs to be done, but it is possible to get
started. Even if insurance companies aren't on board, Google could self-insure the first 100 or 1000 cars.
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