[FoRK] Your prediction, please

Tom Higgins tomhiggins at gmail.com
Mon Jun 24 10:30:02 PDT 2013


Insurance companies have deep pocket lobby efforts, so unless they can get
a method to extend their protection racket to DroneCars I bet we see push
back. You might also want to factor in the stance of the red blooded car
worshiping 'Merican  (not 'meriCANT...no sir) who will push back on this
meme from several jerky scented fronts.....Dont want no guvermunt folks
driving my car for me.....Aint natural to get no compuuuuter do a mans work
for em.......Jebus dont cotton to such witchery.    Lets face it, we still
have cromags who play the auto/manual debate endlessly.

I am not saying this will stop progress, it will slow it a smidge though
until the concerned money makers can find a way to extend their stream into
the new markets and the 'Mericans can find a way to retcon their their car
religion to include it.

-tom(who for most of his prekid life rode mass transit so is very happy
with not driving)


On Mon, Jun 24, 2013 at 10:54 AM, Stephen Williams <sdw at lig.net> wrote:

> On 6/24/13 9:03 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>
>> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 03:15:02PM -0500, Russell Turpin wrote:
>>
>>> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 3:06 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Sold where? Operating in public roads, fully insured?
>>>>
>>> Yes.
>>>
>> I take Yes means California and Arizona, then.
>>
>> As a WAG, 2040. Error range plus minus a decade, so
>> that doesn't mean much in practice.
>>
>
> That's very pessimistic.  We went from slide rules and the Model T to the
> Moon and Internet in similar time.  And things were evolving slowly back
> then.
>
>
>
>>
>>> In any case several decades.
>>>>
>>> Why so long?
>>>
>> There is a lot of inertia, and the insurance issue is highly
>> problematic. You need a lot of crunch in a small, low-power
>> package. We know Moore has saturated, and looks like we hit
>> troubled waters economically rather soon globally, so such
>> things will be very low priority for a while, possibly a
>> long while.
>>
>> (If we're very unlucky, the answer is never).
>>
>>  Perhaps you need to see Google Self-Driving Cars on the road more often.
>  They are fairly common here, driving hundreds of thousands of miles.  Just
> about every time I take I-280 I pass one.  I know where they park, a couple
> miles from home.
>
> I suspect that snow will be an issue for a while, but otherwise they seem
> fairly solid.  City driving and pedestrians were covered well in the last
> DARPA challenge.  Of course a lot of work and testing needs to be done, but
> it is possible to get started.  Even if insurance companies aren't on
> board, Google could self-insure the first 100 or 1000 cars.
>
> sdw
>
>
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