[FoRK] Your prediction, please

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Mon Jun 24 11:14:18 PDT 2013


If the car is driving itself, who is buying the insurance? Whose driving
record? Whose risk?

I can imagine the car vendor having a one-size-fits-all pricing model. Or
pricing that depends on where you go: $X for Zone A, which is highways and
city streets, +$Y for every minute in Zone B, which is off-road/beach/mud.

That's a huge change in the structure of the industry. And these old
entrenched political interests carry a huge amount of weight in the real
world. New York politics run on corruption.


On Mon, Jun 24, 2013 at 10:30 AM, Tom Higgins <tomhiggins at gmail.com> wrote:

> Insurance companies have deep pocket lobby efforts, so unless they can get
> a method to extend their protection racket to DroneCars I bet we see push
> back. You might also want to factor in the stance of the red blooded car
> worshiping 'Merican  (not 'meriCANT...no sir) who will push back on this
> meme from several jerky scented fronts.....Dont want no guvermunt folks
> driving my car for me.....Aint natural to get no compuuuuter do a mans work
> for em.......Jebus dont cotton to such witchery.    Lets face it, we still
> have cromags who play the auto/manual debate endlessly.
>
> I am not saying this will stop progress, it will slow it a smidge though
> until the concerned money makers can find a way to extend their stream into
> the new markets and the 'Mericans can find a way to retcon their their car
> religion to include it.
>
> -tom(who for most of his prekid life rode mass transit so is very happy
> with not driving)
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 24, 2013 at 10:54 AM, Stephen Williams <sdw at lig.net> wrote:
>
> > On 6/24/13 9:03 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> >
> >> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 03:15:02PM -0500, Russell Turpin wrote:
> >>
> >>> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 3:06 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> Sold where? Operating in public roads, fully insured?
> >>>>
> >>> Yes.
> >>>
> >> I take Yes means California and Arizona, then.
> >>
> >> As a WAG, 2040. Error range plus minus a decade, so
> >> that doesn't mean much in practice.
> >>
> >
> > That's very pessimistic.  We went from slide rules and the Model T to the
> > Moon and Internet in similar time.  And things were evolving slowly back
> > then.
> >
> >
> >
> >>
> >>> In any case several decades.
> >>>>
> >>> Why so long?
> >>>
> >> There is a lot of inertia, and the insurance issue is highly
> >> problematic. You need a lot of crunch in a small, low-power
> >> package. We know Moore has saturated, and looks like we hit
> >> troubled waters economically rather soon globally, so such
> >> things will be very low priority for a while, possibly a
> >> long while.
> >>
> >> (If we're very unlucky, the answer is never).
> >>
> >>  Perhaps you need to see Google Self-Driving Cars on the road more
> often.
> >  They are fairly common here, driving hundreds of thousands of miles.
>  Just
> > about every time I take I-280 I pass one.  I know where they park, a
> couple
> > miles from home.
> >
> > I suspect that snow will be an issue for a while, but otherwise they seem
> > fairly solid.  City driving and pedestrians were covered well in the last
> > DARPA challenge.  Of course a lot of work and testing needs to be done,
> but
> > it is possible to get started.  Even if insurance companies aren't on
> > board, Google could self-insure the first 100 or 1000 cars.
> >
> > sdw
> >
> >
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