[FoRK] Your prediction, please

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Tue Jun 25 10:02:21 PDT 2013

On 6/25/13 7:20 AM, Gregory Alan Bolcer wrote:
> On 6/24/2013 8:34 PM, Russell Turpin wrote:
>> Yes, but.... Exposure will be less. I suspect it quickly will become
>> apparent that the damage from fully-automated cars is orders of
>> magnitude less than the damage from human-driven cars. Here's another
>> question: How long between a) the first commercial availability of
>> fully-automated vehicles,
> Long distance trucking, 2035.

22 years for something that already works well enough to deploy now (as long as it shuts down if it can't handle snow)?
I was skeptical until it became clear that current technology is already probably safer than most drivers.  Add further 
refinement and all you need is a business model that satisfies insurance requirements.  Given the companies involved and the 
ability to self-insure, seems fairly straightforward.  Both California and Nevada have already passed laws requiring creation of 
insurance guidelines.  Once those are written, they only have to be met to solve that problem.  For passive-behind-the-wheel 
co-pilot, there seem to be few obstacles.  For no-wheel / driver, it will be more difficult, but with enough track record 
probably not that far off.

> and b) a city banning human drivers within
>> an urban core, except for police and emergency responders?
> 1995 Pennsylvania Ave., Washington DC.

CVS?  RushMyPassport.com?  The Embassy of Mexico?

Did you mean 1600?  I drove there when I moved to the DC area, before they fenced it off after Oaklahoma City.  Then I was there 
at the start and end of group skates for more than 10 years.

My startup was at 2500 Penn., on Washington Circle.

> Greg


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