[FoRK] Quarters needed for Apple to put Microsoft out of our misery?

J. Andrew Rogers andrew at jarbox.org
Fri Jan 30 17:47:15 PST 2015


> On Jan 30, 2015, at 3:21 PM, Stephen D. Williams <sdw at lig.net> wrote:
> 
> That's a very narrow view.  There are plenty of interesting things that will happen on the client also, often within millimeters of sensors with constant streams of gigabytes of data for a few milliwatts.  Machine vision, for instance.  Computing and slinging polygons for another.  Mobile devices are actually ahead of desktops there in some key ways.  The typical experience is likely to be multi-device, multi-screen almost right away.


You do not understand the engineering and architectural constraints. Making the client thinner and dumber fits the constraints more easily for many broadly useful apps like these.


>> Most of the value of the cloud for enterprises going forward is that applications running there have direct access to extremely large, dynamic data models and analytics of which you can ask simple ad hoc questions without knowing anything about the scale, velocity, or topology of those systems. It is seamless and magical as far as the developer is concerned.
> 
> And generally able to be substituted by an alternate implementation it seems.  Not all applications need those particular kinds of analytics.  Many that do can outsource it.  How broadly do you think those types of systems are used and should / will be used?


It is not easily substitutable and it will be ubiquitous because it will make many applications seem very intelligent, often invisibly so. Whoever wins the race to build out the first quasi-complete infrastructure for it wins the market. 

The goal is a single, seamless, converged operational model of physical reality that is continuously updated and analyzable in real-time. Enterprises no longer have to guess about the state of reality “right now”, they can continuously measure it on a global scale, analyze it over time, and/or automatically react to it. A large percentage of the early use cases are around customer experience and apps where it will be completely invisible. 

This can only be built in massive cloud infrastructures, using a single canonical base model of reality shared by everyone and blended with an enterprise’s private data. It is not human consumable in any direct fashion, humans just see the consequences. Basically, the pervasive instrumentation and analytics that have long been possible on the Internet are coming to physical reality.

The wrinkle in the race is that data infrastructure designed for the Internet is pretty useless for this application, so all the big players are starting from a similar position. A lot of the private enterprise data companies would like to blend into this are sitting on Microsoft fabrics.


>> The thin client is the most unimportant part of the environment. It could be any kind of client app. All the real work is happening deep in the cloud in places humans do not and cannot look.
> 
> For some apps.


In a couple years, for almost all apps. The invisibility of it is the beautifully elegant part of the user interface for both the developer and the user.  Magic. 




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