[FoRK] FoRK Digest, Vol 150, Issue 9

Dave Long dave.long at bluewin.ch
Tue Apr 12 12:19:37 PDT 2016


> Or the far more obvious statement... "rising death rates are  
> extremely rare and typically involve countries in upheaval"
>
> AKA the American middle class. So exactly what you'd expect to  
> happen. QED.


I'll grant that what I am calling working class you might be calling  
middle class, but I think the article states the observed rise is  
limited to rural working class.

However, looking at mortality rates during the "shock therapy" after  
the disintegration of the Soviet Union, while we may see a country in  
upheaval, we see a very different pattern.  There are two abrupt sub- 
decade periods of rising death rates (roughly 1991-1995 and  
1999-2003?), and they've since declined almost back to the communist  
levels.

Continuous decades-long slow increase, that looks more like the  
pattern in the USSR leading up to the collapse (1962-1990).  Whether  
there is any more connection there than chart resemblance, and what  
other variables come into play, I have absolutely no idea.

-Dave



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