From: Zhang, Yangkun (Yangkun.Zhang@FMR.COM)
Date: Mon Oct 16 2000 - 14:04:07 PDT
> this unfact keeps floating up and just won't stay dead. We've just
> the longest sustained period of ecnomic growth in US history, right?
> won't lay credit to C/G for that, at least they didn't screw it up
Jeff, while you are right in that C/G didn't screw up royally, it certainly
wasn't for the lack of trying. During 1993 and 1994 when the C/G economic
plan was designed and legislated, interest rates WENT UP, the DJIA gained a
mere 200 points. The market did not boom until after the GOP took over
congress. You and Jim keep saying that my saying the C/G economic policy is
crap is an "unfact". Yet I'm the one who comes out with reams and reams of
stats: hell, don't take my word for it--take a look at the 30 yield
The 30 year rate didn't go down until AFTER the GOP took over congress!
During the GOP tenure, the interest rate had gone down nearly 300 basis pts.
And yes, the 30 year rate is a good proxy of the market consensus on a
nation's long term economic outlook, being on the far right of the yield
curve. The fed does set the discount rate, but that's at the far left of the
So, please, before telling me that what I said about the C/G economic record
is "unfact", refute my arguments with your own stats. Because believe me,
I've got tons and tons of data from everything from Compustat to I/B/E/S to
prove you wrong.
And to quote Herb Allen again: http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue59/qa.html
What do you think caused interest rates to drop so low?
If I were to pick one event, I would say it was the defeat of President
Clinton's plan to restructure the health care industry in this country. That
the plan failed saved Mr. Clinton's rear end and saved all of ours at the
same time. It was a watershed moment that signaled the end of big
And it allowed President Clinton to balance the budget.
The Clinton health plan would have thrown the budget into a massive deficit.
The Federal Reserve would have had to raise interest rates to find the
billions necessary to pay for the flawed program. Of course, the political
irony of the health plan is that it has been totally forgotten, enabling Mr.
Clinton to take credit for the turnaround in the economy.
And Herb Allen, like a lot of us, either voted for Clinton or wished that he
would be elected (some of weren't citizens back then) before C/G's first
term. When asked about if Herb had indeed voted for Clinton, he replied that
Once. Because a second kick in the head by a mule is not instructive. He has
been a very ineffective president both domestically and in foreign policy.
Everything good that has happened--with one or two exceptions--has happened
around him, not because of him.
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