10% of population crosses borders per year?

Rohit Khare (khare@mci.net)
Fri, 05 Sep 1997 16:48:44 -0400

[MSS == Mobile Satellite System, like Inmarsat or Teledesic]

> Turning to the group that many industry observers claim will
>provide the mainstay for MSS market share, the report states, "The
>international traveler market has been targeted for mobile satellite
>services, and no wonder. In 1995, 567 million people traveled beyond
>the boundaries of their respective countries."
> By 2000, that figure will top 700 million and the book states
>that 17 percent of international travelers do so on business, creating
>a total addressable market of 119 million travelers in this sector by
>the millenium.
> (The Complete Book on Mobile Satellites: Systems, Services and
>Market is published by Leslie Taylor Associates and distributed by
>Phillips Business Information, Inc. For ordering information, call
>+301/424-3338 or 800/777-5006.)

Now, how can this be true? That seems like a whopper of a data-definition
error. I think it's closer to 600 million *trips*, not travelers. Just like
the freq. flier data, top 10% is 30-40% of the trips; another bottom part
of the tail is 'in-region' trips like highway travel in Europe, and some
vanishing number is actually 'businessmen in the bush'.

I call these numbers bogus. Perhaps 10% of the population will travel
meaningfully overseas in their *lifetime*.


Rohit Khare /// MCI Internet Architecture (BOS) /// khare@mci.net
Voice+Pager: (617) 960-5131  VNet: 370-5131   Fax: (617) 960-1009